Feb. 2 -- The outlook of the U.S. economic recovery remained uncertain, as the recovery was confronted with a set of domestic and external headwinds, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday.
The U.S. economy has been gradually recovering from the recent deep recession, but the pace of the recovery has been " frustratingly slow", particularly from the perspective of the millions of workers who remain unemployed or under-employed, Bernanke said in his testimony before the House Budget Committee.
The sluggish expansion has left the U.S. economy vulnerable to shocks, including the supply chain disruptions stemming from the earthquake in Japan last year, a surge in the prices of oil and other commodities, and spillovers from the eurozone debt crisis, according to his written testimony.
Over the past few months, indicators of spending, production and job market activity have shown some signs of improvement, but "the outlook remains uncertain and close monitoring of economic developments will remain necessary," Bernanke added.
The U.S. central bank chief cautioned that policymakers should balance their efforts of fiscal consolidation and sustaining economic growth, as some investors were worried about the spiking public debt in the United States.
"Even as fiscal policymakers address the urgent issue of fiscal sustainability, they should take care not to unnecessarily impede the current economic recovery," Bernanke said.
The two goals of achieving long-term fiscal sustainability and avoiding additional fiscal headwinds for the current recovery were "fully compatible" and "mutually reinforcing", he argued.
"On the one hand, a more robust recovery will lead to lower deficits and debt in coming years. On the other hand, a plan that clearly and credibly puts fiscal policy on a path to sustainability could help keep longer-term interest rates low and improve household and business confidence, thereby supporting improved economic performance today," Bernanke noted.
Indice Fletes Promedio Ex Shanghai
Indice Valor Promedio Naves Bulk
The Capital Link Container Index in is comprised of the following 6 companies: Alexander & Baldwin (NYSE: ALEX), Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), Euroseas Ltd. (NASDAQ: ESEA), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Horizon Lines Inc. (NYSE: HRZ) and Seaspan Corp. (NYSE: SSW).
viernes, 3 de febrero de 2012
miércoles, 1 de febrero de 2012
CCFI Commentary Issue 04, 2012
Weekly Report of China Export Container Transport Market
(CCFI Commentary in Issue 04, 2012)
China export box market kept generally stable this week, with demand on deep-sea routes like U.S. and Europe services remaining strong, causing a tighter space condition. On Jan. 20th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 924.25 points, crept up 0.4% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE went up 0.2% to 982.56 points.
Although the export rushes ahead of the lunar New Year, making almost every sailing from China to Europe see full slots, continued, the approach of the holiday had started to weaken the volume, and then slowed the growth of rates. On Jan. 20th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the North Europe issued by SSE rose just 0.5％ to $737/TEU, while the all- in rate for the Mediterranean service surged 0.9% to $779TEU.
It seemed that industry insiders held a consensus that the outlook of the Europe service in 2012 would be bleak. In the short term, as it took some time for factories in Asia to reopen，the fall of demand in February could soften the rates; In the medium-long term, the continued debt crisis in Europe, which may affect the demand of this continent, together with the increasingly fierce competition between new-formed mega alliances could bring problems of overcapacity and lower rates.
The effect of pre-holiday export rush didn’t fade on the North America service, with ships leaving Shanghai for ports along USWC and USEC almost full loaded this week. However, the growth of rate slowed as the space ahead of the lunar New Year become unavailable. On Jan. 20th, the freight indices of services from China to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 910.86 points and 1,123.37 points, up 2.1% and 0.8% respectively from a week ago.
The moderate recovery of U.S. economy drove the trade and shipping demand. Alphaliner, a shipping consultancy, forecast recently that the growth rate of shipping demand on the Far East/U.S. trade this year could reach 4.6%, up 5.4% compared with last year.
Demand was still robust this week on the Persian Gulf service where sailings were seen full slots.Nevertheless, the previous rising trend tended to go flat this week as the effect of pre-holiday export rush diminished. On Jan. 20th, the freight index from China to the Persian Gulf issued by SSE marked at 806.66 points, barely changed from a week earlier.
According to CI, China Shipping, CMA CGM and UASC will launch a service connecting China and UAE, starting operation in February. The three lines announced that they would deploy more capacity on the services to Middle East market by adding transshipment service. Rate on these trades could be under pressure if cargo growth doesn’t match.The Australia and Singapore services saw all ships departing full-loaded this week. Due to the fall of demand during the 7-day holiday, however, some lines started to cut the price slightly. On Jan. 20th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Australia and Singapore issued by SSE tumbled 0.6% from last week to $846TEU.
The volume maintained stable on the Japan service this week, where the average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan reached above 85% and rate fell marginally. On Jan. 20th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 756.85 points, down 2.3% from last week.
(CCFI Commentary in Issue 04, 2012)
China export box market kept generally stable this week, with demand on deep-sea routes like U.S. and Europe services remaining strong, causing a tighter space condition. On Jan. 20th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 924.25 points, crept up 0.4% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE went up 0.2% to 982.56 points.
Although the export rushes ahead of the lunar New Year, making almost every sailing from China to Europe see full slots, continued, the approach of the holiday had started to weaken the volume, and then slowed the growth of rates. On Jan. 20th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the North Europe issued by SSE rose just 0.5％ to $737/TEU, while the all- in rate for the Mediterranean service surged 0.9% to $779TEU.
It seemed that industry insiders held a consensus that the outlook of the Europe service in 2012 would be bleak. In the short term, as it took some time for factories in Asia to reopen，the fall of demand in February could soften the rates; In the medium-long term, the continued debt crisis in Europe, which may affect the demand of this continent, together with the increasingly fierce competition between new-formed mega alliances could bring problems of overcapacity and lower rates.
The effect of pre-holiday export rush didn’t fade on the North America service, with ships leaving Shanghai for ports along USWC and USEC almost full loaded this week. However, the growth of rate slowed as the space ahead of the lunar New Year become unavailable. On Jan. 20th, the freight indices of services from China to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 910.86 points and 1,123.37 points, up 2.1% and 0.8% respectively from a week ago.
The moderate recovery of U.S. economy drove the trade and shipping demand. Alphaliner, a shipping consultancy, forecast recently that the growth rate of shipping demand on the Far East/U.S. trade this year could reach 4.6%, up 5.4% compared with last year.
Demand was still robust this week on the Persian Gulf service where sailings were seen full slots.Nevertheless, the previous rising trend tended to go flat this week as the effect of pre-holiday export rush diminished. On Jan. 20th, the freight index from China to the Persian Gulf issued by SSE marked at 806.66 points, barely changed from a week earlier.
According to CI, China Shipping, CMA CGM and UASC will launch a service connecting China and UAE, starting operation in February. The three lines announced that they would deploy more capacity on the services to Middle East market by adding transshipment service. Rate on these trades could be under pressure if cargo growth doesn’t match.The Australia and Singapore services saw all ships departing full-loaded this week. Due to the fall of demand during the 7-day holiday, however, some lines started to cut the price slightly. On Jan. 20th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Australia and Singapore issued by SSE tumbled 0.6% from last week to $846TEU.
The volume maintained stable on the Japan service this week, where the average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan reached above 85% and rate fell marginally. On Jan. 20th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 756.85 points, down 2.3% from last week.
CCFI Commentary Issue 03, 2012
Weekly Report of China Export Container Transport Market
(CCFI Commentary in Issue 03, 2012)
China export box market generally kept its upward movement this week. As the increasing demand on oceangoing trades such as U.S. and Europe services, full slots became common on those trades among shipping lines. On Jan.13th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 920.56 points, jumped up 2.7% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 0.6% to 981.05 points.
The seasonal factor of the export peak ahead of the Chinese New Year still worked this week. Full-loaded was seen on most sailings as the upsurge of volume in a short time. Rate fluctuated slightly after a strong recovery in previous weeks. On Jan.13th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the North Europe issued by SSE rose 0.4％ to $733/TEU, while the all- in rate for the Mediterranean service surged 2.4% to $772TEU.
However, some industry insiders told that lines can’t be profitable at current rate level and expected a bleak outlook for the future market, despite the recent prosperity. In capacity terms, since almost all of the 10,000 teu-plus vessels delivered last year were sent to the Asia/Europe corridor, the increase of capacity, which is hard to change in 2012, led to a severe imbalance of supply and demand. In addition, the daily sailings service offered by some carriers also amplified the market panic. Taking a look at the another side of the supply/demand equation, European economy would be less likely to turn around this year as the debt crisis in Europe still cast a shadow on this continent. If carriers can’t control the capacity management effectively, the weak growth of demand and increasing new-added capacity would put a downward pressure on rate.
The upward trend extended to this week on the North America service so that carriers announced no space for both USWC and USEC services. Rate fluctuated slightly this week after a strong recovery in previous weeks. On Jan.13th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 891.92 points and 1,113.96 points, up 4.0% and 4.1% respectively from a month ago.
As the holiday in Asia approaches, shippers scrambled to ship goods before the holiday, which resulted in a condition of tight space, with the average slot utilization rate reaching 100%. Traditionally speaking, space booking could shrink in the final week before the holiday, making the market cool down. On the other hand, the existing capacity in the operation is still large. Therefore, the overcapacity is hard to mitigate in the short run and rate is still under the pressure, despite the recent capacity cut move by carriers.
The volume boosted by the export peak before holiday and continued to rise this week on the Persian Gulf service where 100% slot utilization rate was reported. On Jan.13th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Persian Gulf issued by SSE rose to $647/TEU, up 0.8% from a week earlier.
The Japan service saw a marginal rise in volume, where the average slot utilization rate reached about 75% and rate kept stable. On Jan.13th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 774.41 points..
(CCFI Commentary in Issue 03, 2012)
China export box market generally kept its upward movement this week. As the increasing demand on oceangoing trades such as U.S. and Europe services, full slots became common on those trades among shipping lines. On Jan.13th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 920.56 points, jumped up 2.7% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 0.6% to 981.05 points.
The seasonal factor of the export peak ahead of the Chinese New Year still worked this week. Full-loaded was seen on most sailings as the upsurge of volume in a short time. Rate fluctuated slightly after a strong recovery in previous weeks. On Jan.13th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the North Europe issued by SSE rose 0.4％ to $733/TEU, while the all- in rate for the Mediterranean service surged 2.4% to $772TEU.
However, some industry insiders told that lines can’t be profitable at current rate level and expected a bleak outlook for the future market, despite the recent prosperity. In capacity terms, since almost all of the 10,000 teu-plus vessels delivered last year were sent to the Asia/Europe corridor, the increase of capacity, which is hard to change in 2012, led to a severe imbalance of supply and demand. In addition, the daily sailings service offered by some carriers also amplified the market panic. Taking a look at the another side of the supply/demand equation, European economy would be less likely to turn around this year as the debt crisis in Europe still cast a shadow on this continent. If carriers can’t control the capacity management effectively, the weak growth of demand and increasing new-added capacity would put a downward pressure on rate.
The upward trend extended to this week on the North America service so that carriers announced no space for both USWC and USEC services. Rate fluctuated slightly this week after a strong recovery in previous weeks. On Jan.13th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 891.92 points and 1,113.96 points, up 4.0% and 4.1% respectively from a month ago.
As the holiday in Asia approaches, shippers scrambled to ship goods before the holiday, which resulted in a condition of tight space, with the average slot utilization rate reaching 100%. Traditionally speaking, space booking could shrink in the final week before the holiday, making the market cool down. On the other hand, the existing capacity in the operation is still large. Therefore, the overcapacity is hard to mitigate in the short run and rate is still under the pressure, despite the recent capacity cut move by carriers.
The volume boosted by the export peak before holiday and continued to rise this week on the Persian Gulf service where 100% slot utilization rate was reported. On Jan.13th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Persian Gulf issued by SSE rose to $647/TEU, up 0.8% from a week earlier.
The Japan service saw a marginal rise in volume, where the average slot utilization rate reached about 75% and rate kept stable. On Jan.13th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 774.41 points..
jueves, 12 de enero de 2012
CCFI Commentary in Issue 02, 2012
Weekly Report of China Export Container Transport Market
China box export market saw a general upward trend at the start of 2012, with demand on the oceangoing services like Europe and U.S. trade going up steadily, which pushed rates to rise further. On Jan.6th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 896.06 points, jumped up 1.7% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 2.9% to 975.31 points.
As the emergence of traditional export rush ahead of the Chinese New Year, the volume rise on Europe trade extended to this week, where the average slot utilization rate reached about 95%, with some voyages seeing full slots. Rate on this trade went further up. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to the North Europe and Mediterranean issued by SSE respectively stood at 897.23 points and 1,040.38 points, up 4.2％ and 3.7％ from a week earlier.
Since the late December, driven by the traditional export peak, rates stopped dropping and showed an obvious sign of recovery. However, the current rate surge, boosted by the seasonal factor, did not change the fact that supply is still outpacing demand. Once the shipment peak before the holiday finishes, the problem of overcapacity could return. By then, rate could be under a great pressure again, if carriers can’t take effective measures to manage the capacity, market observers told.
The capacity cut, taken by carriers from the Q4 last year, gained a better result on the North America service than the Europe service, since carriers deployed less capacity on the former service earlier. The export rush beginning from the middle December also played a role in improving the situation of supply and demand on this trade, with the average slot utilization rate climbing above 95% for the USWC service and even being close to 100% for the USEC service.
As the good condition of the market, carriers managed to lift the rate up to $1,800/FEU and above $2,700/FEU for the USWC service and USEC service respectively after the recent rate recovery plan. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 859.23 points and 1,074.96 points, up 3.9% and 2.0% respectively.
According to market insiders, most carriers fell into the red in 2011 hit by the shrink of revenue and rate drop. The recovery of rate at the end of 2011 and extending to 2012 made up to the loss to some extent and created a leeway for the upcoming annual negotiation of service contract on the transpacific trade.
Volume went up steadily on the South America service this week, led by the seasonal export rush, where average slot utilization rate remained at above 90%. Despite the general uptrend, some carriers, who lifted rate up sufficiently last week, started to reduce the rate slightly to keep themselves attractive. On Jan.6th, the freight rate from Shanghai to base ports of South America issued by SSE soared up 3.1% from last week to $1,571/TEU.
The average slot utilization rate returned to around 90% on the Australia and Singapore service this week as the volume took a stable stride. Rate on this service kept creeping up, with some voyages seeing a rise of $50/TEU. On Jan.6th, the freight index of service from China to Australia and Singapore issued by SSE increased 1.1% to 909.18 points.
The Japan service witnessed a slight jump in volume this week. The average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan climbed up to around 80% and rate maintained stable. On Jan.6th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 757.49 points.
China box export market saw a general upward trend at the start of 2012, with demand on the oceangoing services like Europe and U.S. trade going up steadily, which pushed rates to rise further. On Jan.6th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 896.06 points, jumped up 1.7% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 2.9% to 975.31 points.
As the emergence of traditional export rush ahead of the Chinese New Year, the volume rise on Europe trade extended to this week, where the average slot utilization rate reached about 95%, with some voyages seeing full slots. Rate on this trade went further up. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to the North Europe and Mediterranean issued by SSE respectively stood at 897.23 points and 1,040.38 points, up 4.2％ and 3.7％ from a week earlier.
Since the late December, driven by the traditional export peak, rates stopped dropping and showed an obvious sign of recovery. However, the current rate surge, boosted by the seasonal factor, did not change the fact that supply is still outpacing demand. Once the shipment peak before the holiday finishes, the problem of overcapacity could return. By then, rate could be under a great pressure again, if carriers can’t take effective measures to manage the capacity, market observers told.
The capacity cut, taken by carriers from the Q4 last year, gained a better result on the North America service than the Europe service, since carriers deployed less capacity on the former service earlier. The export rush beginning from the middle December also played a role in improving the situation of supply and demand on this trade, with the average slot utilization rate climbing above 95% for the USWC service and even being close to 100% for the USEC service.
As the good condition of the market, carriers managed to lift the rate up to $1,800/FEU and above $2,700/FEU for the USWC service and USEC service respectively after the recent rate recovery plan. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 859.23 points and 1,074.96 points, up 3.9% and 2.0% respectively.
According to market insiders, most carriers fell into the red in 2011 hit by the shrink of revenue and rate drop. The recovery of rate at the end of 2011 and extending to 2012 made up to the loss to some extent and created a leeway for the upcoming annual negotiation of service contract on the transpacific trade.
Volume went up steadily on the South America service this week, led by the seasonal export rush, where average slot utilization rate remained at above 90%. Despite the general uptrend, some carriers, who lifted rate up sufficiently last week, started to reduce the rate slightly to keep themselves attractive. On Jan.6th, the freight rate from Shanghai to base ports of South America issued by SSE soared up 3.1% from last week to $1,571/TEU.
The average slot utilization rate returned to around 90% on the Australia and Singapore service this week as the volume took a stable stride. Rate on this service kept creeping up, with some voyages seeing a rise of $50/TEU. On Jan.6th, the freight index of service from China to Australia and Singapore issued by SSE increased 1.1% to 909.18 points.
The Japan service witnessed a slight jump in volume this week. The average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan climbed up to around 80% and rate maintained stable. On Jan.6th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 757.49 points.
CCFI Commentary in Issue 01, 2012
Weekly Report of China Export Container Transport Market
China export box market seemed active in demand this week where rates on major trades jumped up. On December 30th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 881.15 points, little change from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 10.6% to 947.58 points.
Driven by the traditional export rush before the New Year, rate strengthened this week on the Europe trade, where the average slot utilization rate returned to around 95%. Some shipping lines pushed up rates greatly due to some sailings even with full slots. With the support of the big volume, many carriers set to lift rate by $200/TEU.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Europe issued by SSE rose 30.8％ to $701/TEU.
Moreover, the China/Mediterranean trade also saw a boost in volume, where rate went up in a greater stride.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Mediterranean issued by SSE surged 13.2% from a week earlier to $714/TEU. Experts expressed that the substantial rate surge was a result of the rate rebound from a low base at the end of the year after a lasting stagnated market through the 2nd half of 2011 as well as the willingness of carriers, who hold a bleak outlook over 2012, to take advantage of this rate rise to create some room for future adjustment. However, the continued up-trend depends on market demand in the coming year.
Volume was plentiful on the North America trade this week, where the average slot utilization rate for the UCWC service and USEC service remained both over 95%, many sailings even with full slots. In the meantime, some shippers rushed to ship cargoes out before the New Year as rate on the route was scheduled to move up by $400/FEU from Jan 1st of 2012, making the rate soar up for the tightening slots.
On December 30th, the freight rates plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports on the USWC and the USEC issued by SSE stood at $1,692/FEU and $2,892/FEU, up 18.8% and 14.4% respectively.
Pushed by the New Year’s volume peak, rate rose violently on the Australia and Singapore service this week, with the average slot utilization rate over 85%.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of Australia and Singapore issued by SSE climbed up 16.6% to $821/TEU.
Volume kept stable, though, a slight up on the South America service, with the average slot utilization rate over 90%, some sailings even with full slots. In the face of the New Year, some lines planed to raise the rate by $500/TEU.
On December 30th, the freight index from Shanghai to base ports of South America issued by SSE soared up 33% from last week to 860.52 points. However, some insiders said that the actual volume was limited though the rate rose greatly, therefore, it is likely to decline again when the shipment tide receded.
In the contrast, without the drive of the New Year’s shipment peak, volume dropped a little on the Japan service this week. The average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan stood at 75% and rate was almost unchanged. December 30th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 718.57 points, in line with last week’s.
China export box market seemed active in demand this week where rates on major trades jumped up. On December 30th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 881.15 points, little change from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 10.6% to 947.58 points.
Driven by the traditional export rush before the New Year, rate strengthened this week on the Europe trade, where the average slot utilization rate returned to around 95%. Some shipping lines pushed up rates greatly due to some sailings even with full slots. With the support of the big volume, many carriers set to lift rate by $200/TEU.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Europe issued by SSE rose 30.8％ to $701/TEU.
Moreover, the China/Mediterranean trade also saw a boost in volume, where rate went up in a greater stride.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of the Mediterranean issued by SSE surged 13.2% from a week earlier to $714/TEU. Experts expressed that the substantial rate surge was a result of the rate rebound from a low base at the end of the year after a lasting stagnated market through the 2nd half of 2011 as well as the willingness of carriers, who hold a bleak outlook over 2012, to take advantage of this rate rise to create some room for future adjustment. However, the continued up-trend depends on market demand in the coming year.
Volume was plentiful on the North America trade this week, where the average slot utilization rate for the UCWC service and USEC service remained both over 95%, many sailings even with full slots. In the meantime, some shippers rushed to ship cargoes out before the New Year as rate on the route was scheduled to move up by $400/FEU from Jan 1st of 2012, making the rate soar up for the tightening slots.
On December 30th, the freight rates plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports on the USWC and the USEC issued by SSE stood at $1,692/FEU and $2,892/FEU, up 18.8% and 14.4% respectively.
Pushed by the New Year’s volume peak, rate rose violently on the Australia and Singapore service this week, with the average slot utilization rate over 85%.
On December 30th, the freight rate plus surcharges from Shanghai to base ports of Australia and Singapore issued by SSE climbed up 16.6% to $821/TEU.
Volume kept stable, though, a slight up on the South America service, with the average slot utilization rate over 90%, some sailings even with full slots. In the face of the New Year, some lines planed to raise the rate by $500/TEU.
On December 30th, the freight index from Shanghai to base ports of South America issued by SSE soared up 33% from last week to 860.52 points. However, some insiders said that the actual volume was limited though the rate rose greatly, therefore, it is likely to decline again when the shipment tide receded.
In the contrast, without the drive of the New Year’s shipment peak, volume dropped a little on the Japan service this week. The average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan stood at 75% and rate was almost unchanged. December 30th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 718.57 points, in line with last week’s.
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