CCFI Commentary in Issue 02, 2012

Weekly Report of China Export Container Transport Market


China box export market saw a general upward trend at the start of 2012, with demand on the oceangoing services like Europe and U.S. trade going up steadily, which pushed rates to rise further. On Jan.6th, the China Containerized Freight Index issued by Shanghai Shipping Exchange stood at 896.06 points, jumped up 1.7% from last week; while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index issued by SSE surged 2.9% to 975.31 points.

As the emergence of traditional export rush ahead of the Chinese New Year, the volume rise on Europe trade extended to this week, where the average slot utilization rate reached about 95%, with some voyages seeing full slots. Rate on this trade went further up. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to the North Europe and Mediterranean issued by SSE respectively stood at 897.23 points and 1,040.38 points, up 4.2％ and 3.7％ from a week earlier.

Since the late December, driven by the traditional export peak, rates stopped dropping and showed an obvious sign of recovery. However, the current rate surge, boosted by the seasonal factor, did not change the fact that supply is still outpacing demand. Once the shipment peak before the holiday finishes, the problem of overcapacity could return. By then, rate could be under a great pressure again, if carriers can’t take effective measures to manage the capacity, market observers told.

The capacity cut, taken by carriers from the Q4 last year, gained a better result on the North America service than the Europe service, since carriers deployed less capacity on the former service earlier. The export rush beginning from the middle December also played a role in improving the situation of supply and demand on this trade, with the average slot utilization rate climbing above 95% for the USWC service and even being close to 100% for the USEC service.

As the good condition of the market, carriers managed to lift the rate up to $1,800/FEU and above $2,700/FEU for the USWC service and USEC service respectively after the recent rate recovery plan. On Jan.6th, the freight indices of services from Shanghai to USWC and USEC issued by SSE stood at 859.23 points and 1,074.96 points, up 3.9% and 2.0% respectively.

According to market insiders, most carriers fell into the red in 2011 hit by the shrink of revenue and rate drop. The recovery of rate at the end of 2011 and extending to 2012 made up to the loss to some extent and created a leeway for the upcoming annual negotiation of service contract on the transpacific trade.

Volume went up steadily on the South America service this week, led by the seasonal export rush, where average slot utilization rate remained at above 90%. Despite the general uptrend, some carriers, who lifted rate up sufficiently last week, started to reduce the rate slightly to keep themselves attractive. On Jan.6th, the freight rate from Shanghai to base ports of South America issued by SSE soared up 3.1% from last week to $1,571/TEU.

The average slot utilization rate returned to around 90% on the Australia and Singapore service this week as the volume took a stable stride. Rate on this service kept creeping up, with some voyages seeing a rise of $50/TEU. On Jan.6th, the freight index of service from China to Australia and Singapore issued by SSE increased 1.1% to 909.18 points.

The Japan service witnessed a slight jump in volume this week. The average slot utilization rate from Shanghai to Japan climbed up to around 80% and rate maintained stable. On Jan.6th, the freight index of the Japan service issued by SSE was reported at 757.49 points.